Monday, January 18, 2010

How not to play KK

In my continuing attempt to analyze my play, I picked this hand from Sunday's play as an example of an incorrect thought process I used that resulted in my turning KK into a bluff and losing more than I should have on the hand. I don't think I make this mistake as often anymore, but I obviously still make it, I just now use more elaborately LOL processes to convince myself in the moment that the river bet is a good play.

Tournament is the $5.50 2R1A (the five quad), and we are past the rebuy/addon period. I have 8500, villain has almost 10K, blinds are 60/120/15. No specific reads on villain. I pick up KK on the button, action folds to me. I raise to 360, villain in the BB calls for 240. This being a random opponent, I give him a relatively wide range just because my raise came from the button - probably any ace, any decent broadway cards, most high or mid high connectors or gappers, pretty much all pairs to set mine.

Flop is J84 rainbow; other than T9 for the OESD (or 76/65 for a gut shot draw) there are no real draws on the board, so when BB checks to me I put in a relatively small cbet of 420 into a 915 pot. BB calls. I'd probably throw out the very low end of his range with the call; all small pairs except 44, probably connectors that didn't hit very well like 97. He could have called with any card that hit J, 8, or 4, though I would expect him to throw away the four and probably the 8 with another bet OTT unless he hits trips or pairs his kicker. I would also presume he would call with pretty much any J, and would often float with any two high cards that haven't hit (KQ) and some aces, just in case I was cbetting with a missed hand myself. So I can't narrow his range too much, but his hand shouldn't be complete trash.

Turn is the ace of clubs. This not only puts two clubs on the board (putting an off chance backdoor flush draw on board), it also obviously is one of the four overcards to my pair of kings. Villain checks, and I opt to check behind. If he's got an A he won't fold to a bet; if he doesn't, he'll fold. Still no concrete range for villain, pot remains 1875.

River is another J, making the final board AJJ84. Villain checks again, and this is where I made a critical error. My hand has obvious showdown value, as I have two pair (kings and jacks), and can only be beaten if villain is holding an A or a J. If villain has an 8 or a 4 he can't call a river bet. If he has an A or a J, he's certainly not folding to a bet unless he's certainly I'm holding a J, and even then most randoms wouldn't fold an A on this board to the action so far. I therefore have no reason to bet - only in very rare exceptions can I force a better hand (an A) to fold, and a worse hand (an 8, 4, or other random cards) cannot call. However, I talked myself into a bet here, rationalizing that a hand like QJ or KJ would have played the hand the same way (which is true - had I been holding KJ, QJ, JT or something like that, I would bet the flop, check the turn, then bet the river), forgetting that it is a rare villain that, if he floated with an A on the flop, would fail to call a single bet with that ace OTR.

Outcome: I bet 720 into a pot of 1875, villain called with A9. Up until this river bet, I had "won" the hand even though I would lose the pot. When I was ahead, I put money into the pot. When I fell behind, I should have stopped, and I did on the turn but failed to do so on the river.

Lesson: Be aware of the purpose of your bet. This bet clearly wasn't for value - I had every reason to believe I was either way ahead (vs a draw, small pair, or air) or way behind (to a J or an A). While I could argue it was intended to make an ace fold by repping the J, my own experience tells me this play will fail a huge portion of the time. So I should have checked the river and taken the hand to showdown. I still would have lost, but I would have saved the value of the final bet and "won" the hand even though I lost the pot by correctly betting at all points when I was ahead and ceasing to bet when I was behind.

As I said, I do this less than I used to but obviously am still prey to lapses in judgement like this. I have to keep my cool. KK gets cracked. Continuing to bet when you are close to certain that no worse hand will call and no better hand will fold is a good way to lose chips.

Good luck to one and all, and I'll see you at the tables.

SGT RJ

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