Saved by the river

Like a lot of poker players, I think I fall prey to the idea that the luck always bounces the way of the other player.  That it's always my aces getting cracked by the donk who calls with 6/8 and catches two pair.  But the truth of the matter is, of course, that while streaks can happen, they are purely random, and "luck" in the form of catching winners on the river doesn't always happen to my opponent.  Sometimes, it happens for me.

I'm sitting in a tourney right now, the 1 p.m. 5.50 (15K guaranteed) on PokerStars.  One of my favorites, actually, because the blinds don't increase too fast, and of course the pay-off for advancing deep is nice compared to the buy in (first place today is almost $3370).   I'm only still in this thing because I, too, have been a benefactor of luck.  For instance...

5th level (75/150 blinds), and I'm already relatively short (about 1600).  I catch AKs on the button.  Early middle position raises to 500, the guy right next to him calls, everyone folds to me.  I have to put one of them on a pair at least, possibly a big one (from the first raiser - since the caller didn't reraise, I don't have him on a premium pair), but there's a lot of money in the pot relative to my stack, and AKs is a good hand.  Expecting that both will call, I push, and both do call (putting one of them all in as well).  The hands turn over to reveal QJs from the first raiser (I wouldn't raise with it from that position, and I was grateful not to see AA-QQs) and 99 from the caller.  Flop is Kxx, but the two smaller cards are both clubs, the suit of Mr. QJ.  I'm dismayed when the K of clubs hit the turn, giving me trips but the other guy a K high flush.  But the river brought an ace, giving me Ks full, and I live to fight some more.

Much later now, I call an all in for about half my stack (9th level, I think), he turns over AJo to my 99.  A jack hits the flop, and I'm mentally grousing about being reduced to all in or fold mode, but a 9 hit the river to give me 9s full of Ks (K on the flop and turn).

Finally, on level 13 (600/1200, 125 antes, I have about 16K), I'm again looking at an M of under 10 and I catch QJs in the big blind.  There's a minraise from the cutoff, both the small blind and myself call.  The flop is A/Q/x (nothing in my suit), and when the small blind checks I bet 5000.  He raises me all in, and I call, hoping that he was bluffing the ace to pressure a short stack to fold (something I try occasionally).  Sadly, I was wrong, but a J on the river gave me two pair.

Of these hands, I only regret the way I played the last one (I considered shoving preflop, which I prefer now to the semi-bluff on the flop).  The others were just decent cards and luck.  I think it's important to remember that luck happens for me, too.  

For example, not one minute ago I caught AKo to a short stacks AQs, and my hand held up.  Statistically, it's supposed to, but surviving these scenarios is crucial to getting deep into tourneys.  Like earlier, when I got my first (and only pair, so far) of aces and got pushed on by 77s, who failed to improve.  I haven't gotten as many premium pocket pairs this tourney so far (only once each with the big three, although I have had AK at least 3 times, and AQ a couple more), but I think I'm making decent decisions so far, and getting the bounces when I need them.

Well, I ended up out in 146th place (out of 5265 entries) when my pocket fives ran into aces.  I'm up for the day, anyway, and that's always nice, and I think I played pretty well.  Best of luck to one and all, and I'll see you at the tables.

SGT RJ

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